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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.